Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Each writes two articles that strive for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has has something to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
